In an earlier comment I had alleged that Frist's upcoming election bid in 2006 was a factor in his positioning on the Nuclear Option. In fact Frist is stepping down from his seat in 06 to position himself for a presidential run.
The analysis itself holds well enough, since Frist needs a good result for the GOP generally in 2006 to validate his leadership of the Senate Republicans. Regardless, The Ape Man regrets the error.
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I can't believe he would think he has a real chance of winning over the values voters. There's that one sketchy thing that no one seems to comment on.
Frist owns for-profit hospitals that perform abortions. He must know that the Dems will call hypocrisy over it if he makes a serious run for the WH.
Not sure about that specific issue, since the Democrats have always been very bad at capitalizing on that sort of thing. But I agree Frist is a monster long shot for the 2008 nomination; he has too many weaknesses.
But nobody ever accurately evaluates their own chances of winning a presidential nomination.
I don't know how "long" a shot Frist has at the nomination, perhaps because I live in TN, where it's all Frist all the time.
And of course it's still way early, I mean today's conventional wisdom will be spun on it's head after the mid-terms. (Remember '98?)
But I think looking at the players involved on the GOP side of the "compromise" can give any early handicapper some guidance.
Realisticly, McCain has one more shot at the presidency, and he knows this. And he hasn't forgotten the South Carolina push polls of 2000, orchestrated by the hard right. The same guys who want to position Frist for '08. I see this as a bit of an F - you to that bunch. (Who was it that said, "now the White House will have to listen to us...?)
Politics on the national level, it seems to me, is just a series of jockeying moves. As soon as the ballots are counted in one election, the jockeying begins for the next election. And a deal on filibusters today, will have some implication on the nominees tomorrow.
"Realisticly, McCain has one more shot at the presidency, and he knows this. And he hasn't forgotten the South Carolina push polls of 2000, orchestrated by the hard right. The same guys who want to position Frist for '08. I see this as a bit of an F - you to that bunch."
McCain has stated he ain't running in '08 and I tend to believe him. But a bit like you suggest, I tend to believe that McCain has a long memory and isn't gonna miss a chance to screw over anyone who is anywhere close to the religious right. McCain is probably the only one in the gang of 12 who isn't using this fight as an angle to work other legislation. He just loves giving W misery.
McCain says the same thing that Hillary says, the same thing that every potential nominee says - "I have no plans to run at this time."
But if you ask any of them to rule it out, no one does. "Never say never" they say. So I don't think that he's made up his mind one way or the other. But what McCain IS doing is positioning himself. Ultimately he may decide not to run, I think he will, but he might not. But I don't think you can argue the fact that 2008 represents McCains last best chance at the presidency. I don't think anyone would dispute that McCain WANTS to be president, the question is, will he run. I say yes.
Oh and speaking of Frist stepping down, the sure-fire democratic nominee for his senate seat will be Harold Ford Jr. from Memphis. There is another anounced democrat in the field but "junior" as we call him around here, is the man.
This will be a hard seat to capture, but one the dems have a real shot at. Tennessee can elect a democrat, after Bush took Tennessee from Gore in 2000, we elected democrat Phil Bredesen governor. Ford voted for the war in Iraq, voted for the Patriot act, voted for the bankruptcy bill, his record is fairly conservative. Too conservative for me, as a matter of fact, but he is our best hope to turn this seat.
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