Friday, September 26, 2008

NFL Parlay Picker - Week 4

I missed week 3 because of my sister's wedding, but rest assured that I would have won my parlay had I picked one.

Anyway, this week's picks:

CAROLINA -7 over Atlanta

Matt Ryan - shaky QB. Carolina - good defense, playing at home. Atlanta's running game is the wild card here, but I smell a blowout.

Washington +11 over DALLAS

Seriously, a 2-1 team with a decent defense is +11 in a rivalry game? This stinks to high heaven. Something corrupt is afoot here. I am picking this game just so I can complain about it when a shaky call results in a last-minute TD to put Dallas up 34-17.

Buffalo -8 over ST LOUIS

St. Louis is winless against the spread this season, but so far Vegas is slow to adjust. This line should be double digits. The Rams are atrocious. Here's a fun stat - the modern NFL average for yards surrendered per opponent's passing play is about 7. A very good defense gives up about 6 yards per pass. A very bad defense gives up 8 yards per pass. The 2008 Rams are giving up 9.6 yards per passing play. It's almost impossible to overstate how crappy that is. It's very crappy! In fact, what Buffalo receivers are available in my fantasy league?

Denver -8.5 over KANSAS CITY

This is exactly the wrong pick, but I don't see a better one. I actually like the money line on this game as this seems like a letdown game for Denver after a couple of emotional wins.

2 comments:

Steviehop said...

ok my first official parlay of the year and i'm sure as history might suggest i'd be 0 for 3 anyway. This week should turn it around though.

First the common pick

Panthers -7 vs Atlanta.

While Michael Turners having a good start, the panthers are better at everything else, and they're at home.

Minnesota +3 at Tennessee

Given who's QBing and the teams stout run D's, i wasn't sure if 3 was the spread or the over/under. I like the Vikes to win the battle of the servicable late-90's QB's outright.


New Orleans -5 vs San Francisco

Saints look too good to start 1-3.


Cincy-3.5 vs Cleveland

Sorry Adam.

Raul Groom said...

I like how I accurately described all the contests, including a detailed description of why my fourth pick was wrong. AWESOME!

I will now hit myself in the nuts with a ballpeen hammer.