Sunday, September 07, 2008

NFL Parlay Picker

A couple years ago Stevo and I used to try each week to pick a 4-team NFL parlay. A parlay is a bet where if all four of your picks come through, you get a large payout (but not nearly so large that it makes it worth it to actually bet them - the book gets a big premium on parlays.)

As far as I remember, neither of us ever hit one, which means... we're due!

So this year I'm going to give it another go. For the non-handicacppers in the audience, the format of the picks is [winner] [spread] OVER [loser], with the home team in CAPS. Thus if I'm picking the Colts to beat the Browns in Cleveland and cover an eight-point spread, that would be Colts -8 OVER BROWNS.

I'll also give a mini-explanation as to my reasoning for the pick.

Tampa Bay +3 OVER NEW ORLEANS

I like the Tampa bay running attack and their defense.

St. Louis +9.5 OVER PHILLY

Philadelphia is aging and overrated while St. Louis is much healthier than they were last year during their run of misery. 9 1/2 points is too many.

PITTSBURGH -6.5 OVER Houston

The Steelers are ferocious in home openers.

SAN FRANCISCO +1 OVER Arizona

It seems like with a veteran QB and good running game San Fran is put together pretty well to win home games against marginal teams like Arizona.

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